Is The Property Market Going To Crash

Property Market - Is It Going To Crash

According to the media the UK property market is free fall - not a day passes without a mention of the current property crisis in the UK. But is the property market in as bad condition as we are lead to believe?

If you are worried about the situation and have been convinced the UK housing market is going to crash like the USA and Spain you are worrying unnecessarily -  There may be some similarities between us, but our (the UK) prices will drop less significantly than those of the USA and Spain.

The reason for this confidence is simple economics and the fact that the demand for housing far exceeds the supply.

This year alone (2008) the UK government has predicted we will only build 100,000 new homes - a quarter of the required amount- before 2009. So until the UK can match this demand, the market is safe.

Why The UK Property Market Will Not Crash

1.    One of the reasons why Spain is struggling is that they are still building more than they require. The number or available properties far exceeds the population. We have got the opposite problem in the UK.

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In 2005, 193,000 new houses were built. This may sound impressive but to make a real impact on the growth of housing prices and reduce their costs, 245,000 new homes need to be built. And we are far from reaching that goal.

2.    In 2000-2006, the uk population increased by approximately 1.7 million this resulted in the need for 800,000 new residential houses. Although 1.1 million were built in this period, these extra 300,000 new houses were insufficient. They could not account for the growth rate of the churn or 2nd home ownership.

3.   When UK inhabitants are looking to move home they do not compare their salary to the price of the house. The big mistake they usually make is to actually compare their income to their annual mortgage payments.

Although, it could be argued that mortgage payments - as a share of a household income - has increased from 15% (2001) to 19.6% in 2005, these figures are still well below the 34% recorded in the last property crisis in 1989.

4.    It is natural to see fluctuations and property activity in certain areas of the country as the economy grows, but some areas struggle to match these demands. Through a combination of a lack of housing and transport, certain locations have become property hot spots to accommodate this need, but cannot expand fast enough.

Stratford in London springs to mind. Read about Property Investment In Stratford

Is Property A Safe Investment

Throughout the last two decades the UK has survived two property crashes and bounced back stronger than before. Experts predict that by 2010 the housing market will be buoyant once again.

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